The conspiracy theory of the UAE-Israel agreement

The Arab leaders who have recognized and normalized with Israel have stated they have not betrayed the Palestinians. Do they know something that we do not know?

By GERSHON BASKIN
ONE OF the smartest men in the entire Middle East must be Mohammed bin Zayed, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi. (photo credit: HAMAD I MOHAMMED/REUTERS)
ONE OF the smartest men in the entire Middle East must be Mohammed bin Zayed, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi.
(photo credit: HAMAD I MOHAMMED/REUTERS)
I have heard a lot of conspiracy theories over the years, but I tend not to believe them. This is the latest one I heard, and there might be something to it. It seeks to explain why Arab states are breaking out from the Arab Peace Initiative, which promised Israel recognition and normalization only after the creation of a Palestinian state with east Jerusalem as its capital.
Now, one Arab state after the other is recognizing and normalizing relations with Israel without any concessions from Israel on the Palestinian issue.
The Arab leaders who have recognized and normalized with Israel have stated they have not betrayed the Palestinians and their new deals will help the Palestinians. Do they know something that we do not know?
One of the smartest men in the entire Middle East must be Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan, colloquially known by his initials as MBZ. He is the Crown Prince of the emirate of Abu Dhabi and deputy supreme commander of the United Arab Emirates Armed Forces. He is also the architect behind the Israel-UAE normalization deal, and probably also the main force behind the Israel-Bahrain full diplomatic relations deal. Additional states are on the side of the stage waiting their turn.
MBZ is not alone. He seems to be working hand-in-hand with the other Middle Eastern genius and strategic actor, MBS – Mohammed Ben Salman of Saudi Arabia. The third hand in the mix is probably another Mohammed – this one is Dahlan, exiled in Abu Dhabi from Gaza. The three Mohammeds seem to be stirring up the entire region.
The ambitious plan of MBZ, if successful, will turn the entire Middle East upside down. The plan includes a full strategic alliance between the moderate Sunni countries and Israel, with the US tying up the package with massive arms sales. The main purpose of the alliance is to overthrow the regime of the ayatollahs in Iran before it becomes nuclear. At the same time, they plan to reign in the expansionist aspirations of Turkey, and isolate Qatar – the allies of the hated and feared Muslim Brotherhood.
MBZ understands the Iranian regime is a direct threat to the Emirates, and he is fully committed to using diplomacy to fight against them until victory. The Arab League is already pretty much onboard seeing Iran and Turkey as foreign agents in the Middle East. Israel, on the other hand, is seen by him as a part of the region and a crucial actor in the new alliance.
In the background of it all is exiled Palestinian leader Dahlan, MBZ’s close friend and adviser. In past years, Dahlan has been sent on diplomatic missions to countries like Kosovo or Sudan, and suddenly those countries are also now part of this new alliance.
But MBZ represents a small country that cannot lead and cannot control the Arab and Muslim world. His answer and savior is just next door – his best friend on a personal level and the soon to be leader of the most important country in the region – MBS. Saudi Arabia, of course, rules the peninsula where the prophet Muhammad founded Islam. Saudi Arabia serves as the protector of the Holy Places of Islam, Mecca and Medina, and is also the king of black gold. MBS is a young, educated, moderate reformer, charismatic and very ambitious. Just what the region and the alliance needs.
MBZ has been planning the process for years in which his friend MBS becomes the leader of the moderate Sunni world. The secular young people of the region demand democracy, and monarchical regimes no longer have much to sell in the 21st century. The regimes have to reinvent themselves, and MBZ and MBS are the answer.
MBS led the reforms of granting driving licenses to women and bringing them into the labor force, he talks about recognizing Israel without being confused and reluctant, and he completely cuts across the entire extremist line of the Wahabi dynasty and says directly: We must represent moderate Islam, not extremist Islam.
But a Palestinian state and al-Quds still stand in the way of all of these grand plans. In order to get a stamp of approval from the entire Arab and Muslim world they need al-Aqsa to complete the alliance – from a religious point of view – and a Palestinian state to complete it politically.
This is MBZ’s grand plan. According to the conspiracy theory, he has already received it. Just listen to what Jared Kushner says: Israel has already agreed to a Palestinian state and a pilgrimage of Muslims from around the world to al-Aqsa. The deal, as it goes, was already concluded with Dahlan, the Gulf states’ clear candidate for the leadership of the Palestinian state.
The process is being delayed today because of one major problem, the old Saudi king, Salman. The 85-year-old father, apparently suffering from dementia, has not yet really fully supported his son’s full-blown plans and is blocking the son from progressing too fast. King Salman will probably soon die, maybe even killed from within, but the blame, if poisoned, will be put on the Iranians.
The whole world will watch the young king of Saudi Arabia getting off the plane at Ben-Gurion Airport with the king of the Emirates, king of Bahrain, the sultan of Oman and Mohammed Dahlan. King MBS will march triumphantly to al-Aqsa, where he will face the Arab and Muslim world and declare himself the great defender of Islam by agreement of the world, including the US and Israel. He will announce that he delivered to the Palestinians the establishment of a state and all Muslims in the world the right of access to pilgrimage to al-Aqsa to fulfill the Hajj commandments, under the seal of the Saudi Crown.
Far-fetched??? Maybe, but maybe not!
The writer is a political and social entrepreneur who has dedicated his life to the State of Israel and to peace between Israel and her neighbors. His latest book In Pursuit of Peace in Israel and Palestine was published by Vanderbilt University Press and is now available. It will soon appear in Arabic in Amman and Beirut.