Egypt’s Gaza strategy: Ceasefire talks and a bold reconstruction plan - opinion

Egypt is currently playing a crucial role in two of the most significant efforts related to the Gaza conflict.As a mediator, along with the US and Qatar, of the arms-length discussions between Israel and Hamas, Egypt has hosted many rounds of ceasefire and prisoner exchange negotiations. Now, strengthened by its central role in the ceasefire talks, it has masterminded a detailed $53 billion reconstruction initiative for Gaza, which has received strong backing from Arab nations, Western governments, and the UN. It has provided a credible alternative to President Donald Trump's “Riviera of the Mediterranean” concept, which proposed the displacement of most of Gaza's Palestinian population into neighboring Arab states.In late 2023, Egypt did allow the immigration into Egypt, via the Rafah crossing, of a limited number of foreign nationals, dual citizens, and wounded Palestinians. Subsequently, however, it has strongly opposed extending this program, holding firmly to the belief that Gazan citizens should not be displaced from their homeland. Early in February, Israel accused Egypt of expanding its military presence near the border, perhaps to guard against an influx of refugees from Gaza. Egypt said its soldiers were there to fight extremists, who are certainly active in the Sinai peninsula. Egyptian FM Badr Abdelatty (R) and PA PM Mohammad Mustafa (L) at a joint press conference in Cairo, March 1, 2025. (credit: SCREENSHOT/FACEBOOK/VIA SECTION 27A OF THE COPYRIGHT ACT)Total rejection of the idea of displacing large numbers of Gazan citizens lies at the heart of Egypt's proposals for post-war Gaza. Egypt is shaping the region's response to the crisis and positioning itself at the forefront of regional diplomacy, making it a central actor in shaping the future of Gaza and broader Middle East stability.Egypt's initiative would carry real conviction if it emanated from an economically flourishing nation-state, but Egypt is not flying high on the domestic front. It is one of the world's most indebted emerging markets. It is a major burden to service its debts, especially to the International Monetary Fund and Gulf states arising from previous financial rescue packages.As a condition of accepting these loans, Egypt's president, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, was obliged to restrict public spending and impose heavier taxes. This resulted in soaring inflation and the persistent depreciation of Egypt's currency. This, at least, Sisi has been attempting, with some success, to remedy.Egypt's economyEgypt's annual inflation rate in 2020 was about 5.4%. By 2023, it had surged to some 34%, and in September 2024 it peaked at 38%, plunging large parts of the population into severe poverty. Since then, it has been brought under control, and is now declining.A Reuters poll projects that the inflation rate in February will have fallen to 14.5% – much too high for comfort but on the correct trajectory.As for the Egyptian pound, in 2022 its trading rate was about E£16 to the dollar. In 2023, it traded at around E£31. By the end of 2024, the Egyptian pound had devalued to E£50.64 per US dollar.Sisi, however, is succeeding in reversing the downward economic spiral. As of March 2025, Egypt's economic indicators show definite signs of improvement. Its GDP growth rate was recorded at 3.5% in the first quarter of the fiscal year 2024/2025, reflecting the positive impact of economic reform policies. Looking ahead, the ratings organization Moody's Analytics forecasts a 5% growth for Egypt's economy by the fiscal year 2025/2026, with average inflation expected to fall to 16% in the next fiscal year, before further decreasing to 13% by 2026.Sisi's political standing at home, at a particularly low ebb during the worst of the economic hardship, has not yet shown much sign of improvement. Egypt's enhanced international standing, following acceptance by the Arab world and the UN of its plan for Gaza's future, may start to turn the popularity ratings in Sisi's favor.Vision 2030What could effect a sea change in both Sisi's and Egypt's standing would be if its economic development program, Egypt's Vision 2030, achieves some of its goals in the next five years.Saudi Vision 2030, the ambitious program to revolutionize Saudi Arabia economically and socially, led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has received a fair degree of publicity. Egypt's Vision 2030, about which much less has appeared in the media, is no pale copy. On the contrary, it was launched in February 2016, two months before bin Salman announced his plan for Saudi Arabia.Egypt's Vision 2030 is a long-term economic development program aimed at achieving sustainable growth and improving the country's global competitiveness. It focuses on key areas such as economic diversification, infrastructure development, education, healthcare, and environmental sustainability.The plan aligns with the UN Sustainable Development Goals and aims to position Egypt as a leading economy in the region by enhancing investment and digital transformation.Despite Egypt's economic difficulties in recent years, the program has achieved a degree of success. With a population of 115 million, Egypt has been capitalizing on its skilled workforce, prime location, and rich resources to strengthen its position as a key economic hub within Africa.A key component of Vision 2030 is the Digital Egypt strategy, focusing on fostering artificial intelligence and digital innovation. In 2024, Egypt's tech sector recorded a 16.8% year-on-year growth. Central to the program is Egypt's construction sector, growing at an annual rate of 7.4%. Vision 2030 has driven several ambitious projects, including New Alamein City, the high-speed rail and urban railway networks, critical seaport and road infrastructure, and the $45 billion New Administrative Capital. This massive urban development project, intended to house some 6.5 million people eventually, is designed to ease congestion in Cairo and serve as the country's new government and financial hub. Estimated to cost over $58 billion, it was started in 2015. Government offices began to relocate there in 2024, while the designated business district, which contains Africa's tallest skyscraper, the Iconic Tower, is growing rapidly. A new rail and monorail system connects it to Cairo, and an international airport is under construction.Vision 2030 envisages 42% of Egypt's energy coming from renewable sources by 2030. By prioritizing wind, solar, and green hydrogen production, the country is expanding its renewable capacity to 45,000 megawatts from projects already under construction.In 2024, Egypt attracted 15.7 million tourists, breaking its record for the second consecutive year. Tourism and Antiquities Minister Sherif Fathy projects that Egypt is on track to reach 30 million tourists by 2030.With its multi-million development program showing every sign of succeeding, Egypt is particularly well-placed to mastermind an international effort to reconstruct Gaza. Its plan has been widely endorsed. Will that be enough to see it launched?The writer is the Middle East correspondent for Eurasia Review. His latest book is Trump and the Holy Land: 2016-2020. Follow him at www.a-mid-east-journal.blogspot.com.

Egypt’s Gaza strategy: Ceasefire talks and a bold reconstruction plan - opinion

Egypt has a central role in the Gaza conflict and has hosted many rounds of ceasefire and prisoner exchange negotiations.

Houthis detain 1,063 Yemenis over revolution anniversary

Taliban releases US citizen after Boehler

Egypt’s Gaza strategy: Ceasefire talks and a bold reconstruction plan - opinion

Egypt has a central role in the Gaza conflict and has hosted many rounds of ceasefire and prisoner exchange negotiations.

See more on