Will geopolitical tensions escalate further under Trump in the coming years? - opinion

Over the past decade, the geopolitical landscape has undergone its most dramatic shift since the Allied victory in World War II. Global power dynamics have changed significantly, largely shaped by two American leaders: President Donald Trump and former president Joe Biden.While pursuing starkly contrasting foreign policies, their separate decisions have directly impacted Iran, Israel's security, and global stability.Until 2016, the international order remained largely intact under the framework established after WWII, with the United States leading the Western alliance. Under president Barack Obama (served 2009-2017), US foreign policy prioritized multilateral diplomacy and international cooperation. He championed the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or Iran nuclear deal, designed to restrict the Islamic Republic's nuclear program in exchange for economic relief. While the agreement aimed to ease Middle East tensions, Israel viewed it as a strategic misstep, arguing that it gave the Iranian regime financial freedom to continue supporting terrorist groups and developing advanced missile systems.US President Donald Trump seen over an Iranian flag (illustrative) (credit: REUTERS, SHUTTERSTOCK)Meanwhile, Russia, under President Vladimir Putin, annexed Crimea in 2014 and intervened in Syria, propping up former president Bashar al-Assad's regime with support from Iran.China expanded its economic and strategic footprint, strengthening its Belt and Road Initiative and asserting dominance in Southeast Asia and Africa.Europe, meanwhile, remained stable, despite challenges such as the Greek debt crisis, with NATO functioning as a strong military alliance under US leadership.Trump: A shift in strategyTrump's first presidency marked a significant departure from traditional US foreign policy. His America First doctrine emphasized disengagement from global conflicts, withdrawal from international agreements, and a tougher stance on Iran while deepening US-Israel ties.In May 2018, Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, arguing it provided the regime with economic advantages without halting its nuclear ambitions.Trump reimposed strict sanctions under a maximum pressure campaign, crippling Iran's economy and increasing internal unrest. In response, Iran escalated its regional military activities, including attacks on Saudi oil facilities and the deployment of proxy forces across the Middle East.In January 2020, Trump ordered the killing of Qasem Soleimani, commander of Iran's Quds Force, the mastermind behind its overseas terrorist activities. His elimination was a significant blow to the Islamic Republic's military capabilities and influence in the region.Trump also took the following unprecedented steps to strengthen Israel's security:• Recognizing Jerusalem as Israel's capital and relocating the US Embassy there, reinforcing Israel's international standing.• Recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, bolstering Israel's defense against threats from Syria and Iran.• Brokering the Abraham Accords, normalizing relations between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco, forming a regional front against Iran.• Enhancing military cooperation, including strengthening Israel's Iron Dome missile defense system.Biden: A return to diplomacyBiden sought to pivot US foreign policy back to diplomacy, particularly regarding Iran. He aimed at reviving the nuclear agreement but faced a different reality than his predecessor: Since Trump's withdrawal from the deal, Iran had significantly advanced its uranium enrichment capabilities, bringing it closer to nuclear weapons development.Iran capitalized on Biden's diplomatic approach, expanding its nuclear program and increasing attacks via proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. Simultaneously, Iran strengthened its ties with Russia and China, increasing its global influence.While Biden maintained strong US-Israel relations, his administration took a more measured approach than Trump's, occasionally voicing concerns over Israeli policies.World at a crossroadsThe world today faces deep divisions, economic uncertainty, and ongoing conflicts. The war in Ukraine has strained Western patience, with some, including the US, reconsidering long-term military aid, while European nations continue to support Ukraine with weapons and resources.Iran remains a global threat as it continues to supply weapons and strategic support to Hezbollah. Both Israel and the US are evaluating how to respond to Iran's advancing nuclear program. Meanwhile, China is strengthening its alliances with Russia and Iran, challenging US dominance in global trade and technology.The stark contrast between Trump and Biden's foreign policies has had lasting consequences. However, US-Israel military cooperation has expanded under both administrations. Joint air exercises involving advanced fighter jets and US B-52 bombers have demonstrated a united front against regional threats.Despite these military drills, Iran remains undeterred. Its uranium enrichment efforts have reached levels dangerously close to weapons-grade capability.In 2023, the US and Israel conducted Juniper Oak, a major military exercise involving Israeli fighter squadrons and the US Central Command.Recently, US B-52 bombers – capable of carrying nuclear weapons – were observed in joint exercises, signaling a strong deterrence message to Iran and hostile regional actors.In a recent Fox News interview, Trump warned, “If Iran doesn't negotiate, it will be very bad for them. Iran cannot possess nuclear weapons. There are other options available.”Trump and US-Israel relationsWhile past American presidents have prioritized Israel's safety, Trump has positioned himself as one of the most pro-Israel leaders in modern history.His staunch support for the Jewish state's fight against Hamas, his strong stance against antisemitism, and his diplomatic backing – particularly regarding Israeli hostages – have solidified his reputation as a key ally.Iran, long a major concern for Israel, has evolved into a global threat. A recent Telegraph report revealed that Iran, in collaboration with North Korea, has secretly developed nuclear-capable missiles with a 2,900-kilometer range, capable of reaching both Europe and Israel.Intelligence obtained from the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), an opposition group operating from Albania and France, suggests that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) is operating two facilities disguised as satellite launch sites that actually serve as nuclear missile development centers.This week, Trump announced that he had sent a letter to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, proposing negotiations on a new nuclear deal. “I said, 'I hope you're going to negotiate because it will be much better for Iran,'” Trump told Fox News. “The other alternative is to take action – because we cannot allow them to obtain nuclear weapons.”Bloomberg reported that Russia has agreed to mediate between Trump's team and Iran on nuclear and regional issues, including Iran's support for Hezbollah, the Houthis, and other militant factions in the Middle East.Future global securityThe world is at a critical juncture. Will global powers unite to end the Russia-Ukraine war, curb Iran's nuclear ambitions, and support Israel in its regional conflicts? Or will geopolitical tensions escalate further? The answers to these questions will shape the coming years. One thing is undeniable: The shifting tides of global politics will continue to redefine alliances, strategies, and security in ways unseen since the aftermath of WWII.The writer is CEO of Radios 100FM, an honorary consul general, deputy dean of the Consular Diplomatic Corps, president of the Israeli Radio Broadcasting Association, and a former correspondent for NBC.

Will geopolitical tensions escalate further under Trump in the coming years? - opinion

Will global powers unite to end the Russia-Ukraine war, curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and support Israel in its regional conflicts?

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Will geopolitical tensions escalate further under Trump in the coming years? - opinion

Will global powers unite to end the Russia-Ukraine war, curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and support Israel in its regional conflicts?

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