Elections Overshadow Peace Moves

By LESLIE SUSSER
Article from Issue 15, November 10, 2008 of The Jerusalem Report. To subscribe to The Jerusalem Report click here. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni's failure in late October to form a government and her call for new elections came as the Middle East was gearing up for new peace moves. After four weeks of negotiations with a number of prospective coalition partners, Livni declared that she would not give in to political blackmail by the ultra-Orthodox Shas party, sparking a process leading to elections early next year. Her decision came the day President Shimon Peres met with Egypt's Hosni Mubarak to reaffirm Israel's acceptance of a 2002 Arab plan for regional peace as a basis for negotiation on a comprehensive Middle East peace. Peres invited the foreign ministers of Egypt and Jordan to Israel to take the initiative forward. Other Israeli leaders were also ready to move forward on peace-making. Outgoing Prime Minister Ehud Olmert was reportedly mulling over the idea of a new regional peace conference on the basis of the Arab initiative, and Labor leader Ehud Barak said it was time for Israel to come up with a comprehensive regional peace plan of its own, that along with the Arab initiative would set clear parameters for dialogue. Moreover, after months of indirect talks via Turkey, Syria indicated in late October a readiness for direct peace talks with Israel, and, in a shift from an earlier more skeptical position, military intelligence estimated that the Syrians were serious about negotiating a peace deal. As for the Palestinian track, Olmert, who will stay on as caretaker prime minister until the formation of a new government, still believes an agreement is possible on the basis of far-reaching concessions he is prepared to make. Conventional wisdom says the fact that the country is now in the throes of an election will put the peace moves on hold. But Livni's Kadima party might try to advance the process as much as possible - and turn the election into a referendum on peace. Most pundits expected Livni's coalition-building effort to hinge on Shas's demand for an extra one billion shekels in child allowances. But the negotiations with the ultra-Orthodox party collapsed over its demand for a letter from Livni promising not to discuss Jerusalem in peace talks of any kind. Kadima negotiators found the demand preposterous. "No American president would return a call from any Israeli prime minister who signed such a letter," Kadima negotiator Yisrael Maimon, a former cabinet secretary, declared. Indeed, many pundits doubted whether Shas had negotiated in good faith from day one. Rumors were rife of an agreement between Shas leader Eli Yishai and the Likud's Benjamin Netanyahu, promising Shas budgets for child allowances and a commitment not to negotiate over Jerusalem should Netanyahu win the upcoming election - as is widely expected. Livni would like to set the election agenda around two main issues: Peacemaking and her steadfastness in not giving in to excessive political demands - even at the cost of having to forego the premiership. Netanyahu will put a different gloss on both in his campaign messages, arguing that what the country needs is a prime minister who will be resolute about keeping Jerusalem, and who, unlike Livni, the neophyte coalition bungler, will have the necessary experience to run the country. Article from Issue 15, November 10, 2008 of The Jerusalem Report. To subscribe to The Jerusalem Report click here.