What are the burning issues awaiting the Netanyahu-Gantz?

In Context: Hell hath no fury like Yair Lapid scorned

By HERB KEINON
Blue and White leader Benny Gantz and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meet to discuss possible political frameworks, October 27 2019 (photo credit: ELAD MALKA)
Blue and White leader Benny Gantz and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meet to discuss possible political frameworks, October 27 2019
(photo credit: ELAD MALKA)
It might actually happen next week. The State of Israel, which on Wednesday celebrated 72 years of independence, might actually get a government. Not a transitional government to rule only until the next elections, but a real live permanent one.
It might have taken some 18 months, three elections and a global pandemic to get there, but next Thursday the Knesset may approve a Netanyahu-Gantz emergency rotation government.
Or not.
Even before the Knesset members get a chance at voting on the new coalition, this two-headed government-in-waiting will have to pass its first major test – the High Court of Justice. That is, even before the government is sworn in – with a grotesque number of 36 ministers and 16 deputy ministers weighing heavily on the state budget at a time when government funds will be desperately needed for post-coronavirus economic recovery – it will have to face a major legal battle.
And this is just the first of a number of major challenges the government will have to overcome during its first few months in office (if it gets that far). Here is a look at those challenges:
Legal challenges
In what promises to be a hearing with far-reaching ramifications on the balance of power between the executive, legislative and judicial branches of government, the High Court of Justice – in a special panel made up of 11 of the court’s 15 judges – will begin hearing arguments against the coalition agreement that was drawn up last week, and the possibility of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – indicted on a number of different counts of bribery, fraud and breach of trust – continuing to serve as prime minister.
The current law, which says that a minister must step down if indicted, does not apply to a prime minister. But that deals with a prime minister whose government has received the confidence of the Knesset – in other words, it may be referring to a permanent, not transitional prime minister.
The coalition agreement also includes a number of clauses that alter the way the country is governed, from a clause that says no new legislation unrelated to corona – except dealing with annexation – can be drawn up for six months, to mandating that new elections are held in three years’ time, to changing the composition of the committee to appoint judges.
In short, significant changes.
Supreme Court President Esther Hayut announced this week that the court will begin hearings on the eight petitions filed against the coalition agreement on Sunday and Monday.
These are dramatic hearings that will determine whether this government overcomes its first challenge and even makes it to a vote of confidence in the Knesset Thursday, or whether the country hurtles toward a fourth election.
The coronavirus challenge
Benny Gantz, who over the last three elections cycles ran on a platform of not sitting in a government led by a man under criminal indictment, justified his decision to do just that by saying that the coronavirus is an emergency that necessitates unusual moves – in other words, extraordinary times demand extraordinary steps, and this proposed government is just one of them.
The virus and the damage it has caused Israel’s economy are the reasons he gave for casting his main campaign promise to the wind. So the virus will be the first and – according to the coalition agreement – only agenda item for the government over the next six months (with the exception of the possibility of moving forward on extending Israeli sovereignty in the West Bank allowed under US President Donald Trump’s “Deal of the Century”).
The government’s entire reason for existence is to deal with the challenges presented by the virus.
With more than 25% of the population now unemployed, and one report saying that as many as 25,000 businesses may close by the end of the year, economic devastation holds within it the seeds of massive societal unrest. Some of that can be seen already in angry protests by small business owners and merchants.
Though the government, which will include disparate voices from both the Right and the Left, will be tugging in all different directions when it has to deal with diplomatic issues, when it comes to economic issues there will be an interest in working together because it is in both parties' political interests for solutions to be found to the grave corona-related economic difficulties.
The incentive for the Likud and Blue and White blocs to work together on an economic package that works is that the failure to do so will mean that the next time the country returns to elections – in another three years under the coalition agreement – both parties will suffer at the hands of angry voters.
The impact of the virus on the economy of the country has been compared to the 1973 Yom Kippur War, when it took the nation more than a decade to get back on a solid economic footing. Both parties have their own political interests in ensuring that this does not happen this time, and that measures are passed that ensure a much quicker recovery. These include streamlining bureaucracy, decreasing taxes and fees, providing credit, helping with rent, and increasing debt to finance the deficit.
The annexation challenge
Under the coalition agreement, Netanyahu can move forward on annexation stipulated under Trump’s plan on July 1. But this, only in coordination with Gantz.
Inside this government there will be a wide range of opinions on what Israel should do, from Labor’s Amir Peretz, who is opposed to unilateral moves, to the Likud’s Yariv Levin, who would like to see as wide an annexation as possible.
This issue is certain to cause friction inside the government, and the disagreements – it is safe to assume – will leak out of the cabinet and security cabinet meetings, as each side will seek to score public points.
While Netanyahu has indicated he would like to annex the Jordan Valley and all the settlements as stipulated under the plan, both Gantz and presumptive foreign minister Gabi Ashkenazi have expressed deep reservations, especially about a Jordan Valley annexation, because of concern about the impact that would have on the peace treaty with Jordan.
One way out of a political stalemate on this is to annex something – taking advantage of a situation provided by Trump while it lasts – but not doing anything that causes a rupture with Jordan, such as extending Israeli sovereignty over the Jordan Valley.
In this possible scenario, Israel would annex areas that under previous understandings were almost certain to become a part of Israel, such as Ma’aleh Adumim and Gush Etzion, but wait on formally extending sovereignty to the Jordan Valley at least until after November, when it becomes clear whether Trump continues for another four years, or whether Israel will have to adapt to a Democratic administration under Joe Biden.
While at the beginning of the year, when the US economy was booming and Trump survived his impeachment proceedings, the chances looked good that Trump might be reelected, now, amid harsh criticism of his handling of the corna crisis and as the US economy is in a tailspin, a second Trump term looks much less certain.
As a result, Israel needs to prepare for a Democratic administration that would be beholden to a certain extent to the party’s progressive wing, which would be sure to make demands on the administration regarding Israel. One of the immediate challenges of the incoming Israeli government will be to already start developing discreet channels of communication with the Biden team, to gage where it is likely to stand and measure Israel’s room for maneuverability,
Military challenges
Since the coronavirus first arrived in the region in late February, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad provocations from Gaza have all but stopped, and terrorism from Judea and Samaria has declined significantly.
But all realize that this is just a lull, and – sooner or later – those challenges will reappear, along with an even greater military threat: Iran and its regional designs.
Even though during the election campaign Gantz and Blue and White bashed Netanyahu for what they claimed to be a weak policy toward Gaza, significant differences in the country’s security policy, both toward Gaza and toward Iran and Hezbollah, do not genuinely exist. Both parties agree on the need to take aggressive action against Iran’s efforts to entrench itself in Syria, and the need to contain the situation in Gaza without embarking on a full-scale military invasion. There will be military challenges, but they are unlikely to be the undoing of this coalition.
Opposition challenge
Hell hath no fury like Yair Lapid scorned, or so Lapid – who will lead the opposition once a new government is sworn in – wants the public to internalize.
In a speech to the Knesset last week after the coalition agreement was unveiled, Lapid promised to fight the new government “in the Knesset, in the courts, in the streets and in the squares.”
“I’ve never been more determined in my life. We have a country to save, and we have no intention of giving up,” he declared, blasting his erstwhile ally Gantz, whom he accused of “stealing votes” and perpetuating “the worst fraud in the history of this country.”
As head of the opposition, Lapid can be counted on to keep the heat on the government and to keep the barbs sharp and constant. That is to be expected, and the coalition – if it numbers 80 MKs as is likely – can be counted on as well to handily deal with those challenges inside the Knesset.
The difficulties will be if Lapid fires up the street and if the protests against the government swell – something that could happen in a couple weeks when Netanyahu’s trial begins, and the idea of a prime minister laboring under an indictment will not be just theory but will become very real, as photos emerge of Netanyahu going to and from court.
The prime minister in court, along with economic anger of people hurt by the virus, could create a critical mass significant enough to pose a challenge to the coalition, as some members of the Blue and White bloc in the coalition might ask whether their political futures are really well served by sitting in a coalition that a loud and vocal part of the country deems illegitimate.