A new study published in Nature Medicine forecasts a dramatic increase in dementia cases in the US over the coming decades, with new cases expected to double by 2060. The number of annual new dementia diagnoses is projected to rise from approximately 514,000 in 2020 to about one million by 2060.
The research was coordinated by the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and led by Dr. Josef Coresh of NYU Langone Health. The study aimed to measure the lifetime risk of dementia and update previous estimates, utilizing data collected over three decades.
Researchers analyzed information from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Neurocognitive Study (ARIC-NCS), which has monitored the vascular health and cognitive function of nearly 16,000 individuals since 1987. During the study period from 1987 to 2020, 3,252 participants were documented as having developed dementia.
"Our research predicts a dramatic increase in the dementia burden in the United States over the coming decades, with one in two Americans expected to experience cognitive difficulties after age 55," said Dr. Coresh, an epidemiologist at NYU Langone Health, according to the Washington Examiner.
The study found that more than 40% of people aged 55 and older will develop dementia during their lifetime, higher than previous estimates. As noted by Science Alert, this figure is more than double the risk reported in older studies.
Women face a higher risk of developing dementia compared to men. Racial disparities were also evident in the findings. The median age of dementia diagnosis was 79 years for Black participants and 81 years for White participants.
More than six million Americans are living with dementia, with numbers expected to rise substantially over the next four decades. The anticipated increase in dementia cases is closely linked to an aging population and improved diagnosis, presenting a growing public health challenge.
Key preventive strategies identified in the research include controlling blood pressure, managing diabetes, maintaining cardiovascular health, and protecting against brain injuries, which can help reduce the risk of dementia.
Addressing hearing loss is also emphasized as an important factor in dementia prevention. Dr. James Galvin, an Alzheimer's specialist at the University of Miami, urges individuals to use hearing aids if aging brings hearing loss, which can lead to social isolation. "There are things we have control over, and those things I think would be really important to build a better brain as we age," said Dr. Galvin, according to the AP.
"These results highlight the urgent need for policies that enhance healthy aging, with a focus on health equity," the study states, according to ABC News. The researchers suggest that policymakers should urgently develop strategies to promote a healthy lifestyle aimed at reducing the risk of dementia, including measures to prevent heart diseases, according to the Washington Examiner.
"All our studies suggest that what you do in middle age really matters," said Dr. Coresh, according to the Washington Times.
This article was written in collaboration with generative AI company Alchemiq